Are HOMA & HOMA-C the Most Complete and Relevant Comparative Measurements for MLB Career Evaluation?
There have been multiple scoring systems designed to measure greatness over a ball player’s career to eventually determine their enshrinement into baseball’s Hall of Fame. These have included “grey ink” and “black ink” (related to finishing in the top ten or at the very top of a variety of seasonal statictical categories), HOF Monitor and Hall of Fame Career Test (points awarded for reaching certain milestones with some post season factors included with the former) and the Jaffe WAR Score system-JAWS, which averages a players career WAR with the cumulative WAR over their highest seven seasons. All these systems are described here:
Then there is the Hall of Stats that combines an adjWAR and WAA (Wins Against Average).
Hall of Stats WAR and WAA Reference
The HOMA scoring system uses a unique Peak WAR component that includes a longevity element baseline of eight years of above average WAR that is then combined with a modified career rating scale of OPS+ for position players and ERA+ for pitchers. The modifications to OPS+/ERA+ include position/role and peak longevity multipliers. For position players a stolen base component, measuring both peak steals volume and stolen base success rate, is added on. Finally, for both components of the HOMA score, a 20% penalty is imposed on those who were confirmed to have used performance enhancing drugs for at least several months during their playing careers.
Also addressed is the issue of relief pitchers having significant WAR reductions due to fewer innings pitched. To offset this their peak longevity baseline is reduced to 5 seasons. In calculating their final HOMA score, the divisor is reduced by the same amount as the difference between their group average Peak Score and that of the grouped qualifying starting pitchers.
The HOMA-C (‘C’ for championship) scoring adds in another component for post-season championship performance. The Player Championship Score (PCS) includes both team success and individual awards. A full description of both the HOMA and HOMA-C scoring systems is given here:
A description of the HOMA system would not be complete without providing a method for how the Negro Leagues player performance is to be equitably measured. The major limiting issue for doing performance comparisons for these players is that, due to shorter sesaons and incomplete or missing box scores/game accounts, NGLers will vastly underperform their traditional major league counterparts in all the counting statistics including WAR. To adjust for this, Peak WAR was determined by taking a player’s 162 games average WAR and then doing a “best-fit” conversion. The best fit factors were determined by comparing 7 year peak WAR performance for several hundred top tier retired players versus their average 162 game WAR.
For career NGLers their career longevity baseline was adjusted to six years. Their Negro League total years were determined by dividing their total Negro League games by 140. The standard major leagues played 154 game seasons during the entire period of operation of the currently recognized Negro Leagues. The 140 game season figure is used with theconsideration that players would, on average, miss 10% of their games.
For NGLers whose majority careers were in the Negro Leagues, their career longevity baseline was also adjusted to six years. Again their Negro League total years were determined by dividing their total Negro League games by 140. For those NGLers who also played in the standard Major Leagues, their final Peak WAR score was the weighted average of their Negro Leagues and standard Major League peak scores.
So what then makes HOMA so special? At its core, the HOMA score combines two of the most important and utilized modern analytical metrics- WAR and OPS+ (for hitters) / ERA+ (for pitchers). No other Hall of Fame metric attempts this.
Then based on these two metrics, the career HOMA scores include these unique factors:
- An extended measure of Peak WAR, defined as a period of sustained significant WAR performamce
- A measure of peak longevity seasons with an 8 year baseline for position players and starting pitchers
- A modified rating scale for career OPS+/ERA+
- Regarding these measures, scaling adjustments are made for position/role played, while also adjusting for significant time at secondary positions/roles
- A stolen base factor for high volume base-stealers
- Adjustments to both major metrics for PED useage
- Equitable adjustments for Negro League statiscal limitations by using 162 game averages
- Equitable adjustments for relief pitcher innings related limitations in a common sense way
- Adding a team and individual post-season championship performance elements in deriving a HOMA-C metric to provide a more overall career metric
Compare these features with the limitations of the other career evaluation scoring systems.
The comprehensive WAR performance measurement is absent from both the grey and black ink and the HOF Monitor and Hall of Fame Career Test scoring systems, instead subsitutung numerous statistical categories. Also the apples to apples career comparisons as utilized in OPS+/ERA+ are not considered. No consideration is given to any NGL statistical adjustments.
The Jaffe JAWS system makes use of a peak WAR element but then relies on career WAR for the other part of its measrement system. How significant is it, when a evaluating a player’s career, to consider continued years of low value WAR and then not to emphasize high WAR output beyond the system’s seven year peak baseline? Sustained greatness is softened and sustained mediocrity is rewarded. Again there is no NGL adjustment or consideration of OPS+/ERA+.
The Hall of Stats is in some ways similar to Jaffe. Its Wins Against Average could be considered as a Peak Measure system (with no years restriction like Jaffe does) with its WAR component exactly matching the Jaffe career WAR total. It does do a better job dealing with Peak performance by using Wins Against Average but still also rewards sustained mediocrity. Once again there is no NGL adjustment or consideration of OPS+/ERA+. And both systems make it difficult for relief pitchers to score well with the known limitation of innings pitched.
What is needed is a system that takes account of extended peak performance; recognizes significant performance on era comparative and comprehensive rate scales (OPS+ and ERA+); makes eqitable adjustments for NGLers based on full major league season (162 game) WAR; and is willing to apply fair penalties for known cases of PED use.
And so, welcome to the Hall of Maximum Achievement score and its supplemental Hall of Maximum Achievement- Championship score.